Much of the excitement that investors have for emerging markets is anchored in the idea that developing countries grow faster than the sclerotic rich countries of the West and that this growth brings opportunities for extraordinary portfolio returns. Unfortunately, this is largely wishful thinking, as the evidence shows that countries in the developing world have experienced mediocre growth. Nevertheless, there have been important exceptions. A select group of countries have achieved periods of “miracle growth,” allowing them to significantly reduce the income gap with rich countries.
Developing countries, including many key emerging markets, have grown at a slower rate than the bellwether economy of the United States since 1980. This period includes the entire modern era of emerging market institutional investing, which can be considered to have started in the mid-1980s with the launch of the IFC and MSCI indices. It covers the entire era of the “Washington Consensus” for free trade and capital movements, which theoretically should have favored developing countries, and also coincides with a significant decline in the rate of growth of the American economy. The data from the World Bank on GDP per capita growth in dollar terms from 1980-2023 is shown below. About two-thirds of countries have grown at a slower rate than the United States. In emerging markets, these laggards include most of Latin America and Africa—countries which, with the exception of Mexico, failed to participate in the globalization trend. On the other hand, the “convergers,” with the exception of India and Egypt, are all countries that deeply benefited from expanding global trade.
Of the convergers listed above, few achieved impressive growth levels; Turkey, Bangladesh, Egypt, Chile, Indonesia, Malaysia, and India all grew GDP per capita by less than 3% per year. Very few countries are achieving the kind of “miraculous” growth that can be transformational over a generation.
The chart below highlights the few countries that have aspired to “miracle” growth status. True economic “miracle” growth stories have been exceptionally rare in the past 60 years. Only five countries—Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, and China—have achieved the high GDP growth over extended periods necessary to make giant leaps in the rankings of the wealth of nations. This group of countries, the so-called Asian Tigers, all pursued similar export-oriented mercantilist policies based on the repression of domestic wages and benefited greatly from U.S.-sponsored trade liberalism.
Several countries once labeled “miracles” have been unable to sustain growth. These countries have seen their miracle growth aborted for a variety of reasons related to poor governance and weak institutions. Latin American economies once considered to be on the “miracle” path, such as Brazil and Chile, have fallen into “middle-income traps” characterized by low growth and political and social instability. Brazil, in particular, rejected the globalization trend, doubling down on its reliance on commodity exports. Botswana, once considered the stellar success of Africa, has also slowed.
The integration of Eastern Europe into the rich economies of Western Europe has been an outstanding success, allowing countries like Poland to make significant strides toward convergence, which appears to be sustainable. Poland and other countries of Eastern Europe have benefited from exceptional financial assistance from Western governments and abundant access to private capital made possible by geopolitical and historical considerations.
Most of the miracle economies of the past decades have exhausted the high-growth phase and are now expected to experience mundane to low growth. The chart below shows the IMF’s GDP growth expectations for the remainder of the decade. The new growth hopefuls—Bangladesh, India, Vietnam, and the Philippines—will face more difficult conditions than in the past, as the U.S.-imposed “Washington Consensus” has been replaced by deglobalization and geopolitical conflict.
Thank you for sharing this insightful post! Your writing is clear, informative, and engaging. I appreciate how you’ve broken down complex concepts into easily digestible parts. It’s evident that you have a deep understanding of the topic, and your tips are practical and actionable. I particularly liked the way you addressed [specific point from the article], as it resonated with my own experiences. This kind of content is invaluable for readers looking to expand their knowledge and apply new strategies effectively. Looking forward to reading more from you. Keep up the excellent work!
Thank you for sharing this insightful post! Your writing is clear, informative, and engaging. I appreciate how you’ve broken down complex concepts into easily digestible parts. It’s evident that you have a deep understanding of the topic, and your tips are practical and actionable. I particularly liked the way you addressed [specific point from the article], as it resonated with my own experiences. This kind of content is invaluable for readers looking to expand their knowledge and apply new strategies effectively. Looking forward to reading more from you. Keep up the excellent work!
I appreciate you taking the time to write and share this insightful piece. It was clear and concise, and I found the data to be really useful. Your time and energy spent on this article’s research and writing are much appreciated. Anyone interested in this topic would surely benefit from this resource.
Thank you for sharing this insightful post! Your writing is clear, informative, and engaging. I appreciate how you’ve broken down complex concepts into easily digestible parts. It’s evident that you have a deep understanding of the topic, and your tips are practical and actionable. I particularly liked the way you addressed [specific point from the article], as it resonated with my own experiences. This kind of content is invaluable for readers looking to expand their knowledge and apply new strategies effectively. Looking forward to reading more from you. Keep up the excellent work!
Thank you for sharing this insightful post! Your writing is clear, informative, and engaging. I appreciate how you’ve broken down complex concepts into easily digestible parts. It’s evident that you have a deep understanding of the topic, and your tips are practical and actionable. I particularly liked the way you addressed [specific point from the article], as it resonated with my own experiences. This kind of content is invaluable for readers looking to expand their knowledge and apply new strategies effectively. Looking forward to reading more from you. Keep up the excellent work!
Thank you for sharing this insightful post! Your writing is clear, informative, and engaging. I appreciate how you’ve broken down complex concepts into easily digestible parts. It’s evident that you have a deep understanding of the topic, and your tips are practical and actionable. I particularly liked the way you addressed [specific point from the article], as it resonated with my own experiences. This kind of content is invaluable for readers looking to expand their knowledge and apply new strategies effectively. Looking forward to reading more from you. Keep up the excellent work!
For en flott historie! Jeg er så glad for at du delte den. Dataene du ga var både praktiske og enkle å forstå. Din evne til å forenkle ellers vanskelige ideer er sterkt verdsatt. Enhver som er interessert i å lære mer om dette emnet vil dra stor nytte av å lese dette.
For en flott historie! Jeg er så glad for at du delte den. Dataene du ga var både praktiske og enkle å forstå. Din evne til å forenkle ellers vanskelige ideer er sterkt verdsatt. Enhver som er interessert i å lære mer om dette emnet vil dra stor nytte av å lese dette.
Thank you for sharing this insightful post! Your writing is clear, informative, and engaging. I appreciate how you’ve broken down complex concepts into easily digestible parts. It’s evident that you have a deep understanding of the topic, and your tips are practical and actionable. I particularly liked the way you addressed [specific point from the article], as it resonated with my own experiences. This kind of content is invaluable for readers looking to expand their knowledge and apply new strategies effectively. Looking forward to reading more from you. Keep up the excellent work!
Jeg setter pris på at du tok deg tid til å skrive og dele denne innsiktsfulle artikkelen. Den var klar og konsis, og jeg fant dataene veldig nyttige. Din tid og energi brukt på forskning og skriving av denne artikkelen er sterkt verdsatt. Enhver som er interessert i dette emnet vil uten tvil dra nytte av denne ressursen.
Thank you for sharing this insightful post! Your writing is clear, informative, and engaging. I appreciate how you’ve broken down complex concepts into easily digestible parts. It’s evident that you have a deep understanding of the topic, and your tips are practical and actionable. I particularly liked the way you addressed [specific point from the article], as it resonated with my own experiences. This kind of content is invaluable for readers looking to expand their knowledge and apply new strategies effectively. Looking forward to reading more from you. Keep up the excellent work!
Thank you for sharing this insightful post! Your writing is clear, informative, and engaging. I appreciate how you’ve broken down complex concepts into easily digestible parts. It’s evident that you have a deep understanding of the topic, and your tips are practical and actionable. I particularly liked the way you addressed [specific point from the article], as it resonated with my own experiences. This kind of content is invaluable for readers looking to expand their knowledge and apply new strategies effectively. Looking forward to reading more from you. Keep up the excellent work!
Thank you for sharing this insightful post! Your writing is clear, informative, and engaging. I appreciate how you’ve broken down complex concepts into easily digestible parts. It’s evident that you have a deep understanding of the topic, and your tips are practical and actionable. I particularly liked the way you addressed [specific point from the article], as it resonated with my own experiences. This kind of content is invaluable for readers looking to expand their knowledge and apply new strategies effectively. Looking forward to reading more from you. Keep up the excellent work!
Excellent piece! You really impressed me with your thorough research and insightful commentary on the subject. The way you write is captivating and the plot flows well. Your use of concrete examples greatly aided my comprehension of the ideas. I appreciate you taking the time to provide this helpful data.
For en utmerket artikkel! Å lese den var virkelig lærerikt for meg. Du ga ekstremt godt organisert materiale, og dine forklaringer var både klare og korte. Din tid og energi brukt på forskning og skriving av denne artikkelen er sterkt verdsatt. Enhver som er interessert i dette emnet vil uten tvil dra nytte av denne ressursen.
I really enjoyed reading this article. Your clear and concise explanations make it easy to grasp even the more complex topics. I appreciate the effort you put into providing such detailed information. This is a valuable resource for anyone looking to learn more about this subject.
For en utmerket artikkel! Å lese den var virkelig lærerikt for meg. Du ga ekstremt godt organisert materiale, og dine forklaringer var både klare og korte. Din tid og energi brukt på forskning og skriving av denne artikkelen er sterkt verdsatt. Enhver som er interessert i dette emnet vil uten tvil dra nytte av denne ressursen.
Thank you for sharing this insightful post! Your writing is clear, informative, and engaging. I appreciate how you’ve broken down complex concepts into easily digestible parts. It’s evident that you have a deep understanding of the topic, and your tips are practical and actionable. I particularly liked the way you addressed [specific point from the article], as it resonated with my own experiences. This kind of content is invaluable for readers looking to expand their knowledge and apply new strategies effectively. Looking forward to reading more from you. Keep up the excellent work!
Thank you for sharing this insightful post! Your writing is clear, informative, and engaging. I appreciate how you’ve broken down complex concepts into easily digestible parts. It’s evident that you have a deep understanding of the topic, and your tips are practical and actionable. I particularly liked the way you addressed [specific point from the article], as it resonated with my own experiences. This kind of content is invaluable for readers looking to expand their knowledge and apply new strategies effectively. Looking forward to reading more from you. Keep up the excellent work!
This post was really helpful and easy to follow. Reading your in-depth analyses and well-explained points is a delight. I found the samples you provided to be really useful. Your expertise is much appreciated.
This post was quite illuminating for me. Your thorough elucidations and meticulously structured content rendered it an enjoyable read. Your ability to simplify difficult subjects into more digestible parts is really appreciated. Anyone interested in learning more about this topic would benefit greatly from reading this.
Thank you for this comprehensive and engaging article. Your clear and concise writing style makes it easy to follow along, even with more complex topics. I learned a lot from this post and will definitely be referring back to it in the future. Keep up the great work!
What an excellent post! Reading it was really educational for me. You provided extremely well-organized material, and your explanations were both clear and brief. Your time and energy spent on this article’s research and writing are much appreciated. Anyone interested in this topic would surely benefit from this resource.
Thank you for sharing this insightful post! Your writing is clear, informative, and engaging. I appreciate how you’ve broken down complex concepts into easily digestible parts. It’s evident that you have a deep understanding of the topic, and your tips are practical and actionable. I particularly liked the way you addressed [specific point from the article], as it resonated with my own experiences. This kind of content is invaluable for readers looking to expand their knowledge and apply new strategies effectively. Looking forward to reading more from you. Keep up the excellent work!
Great article! Your in-depth analysis and engaging writing style make it a pleasure to read. I learned a lot from this post and will definitely be referring back to it in the future. Thank you for sharing your expertise with us.